While trying to distract myself from the fact that a Gus Frerotte vs. Norv Turner Super Bowl is still a possibility, I took a look at Sammy Baugh’s statistics. I was surprised to see his rookie season quarterback rating: 50.5, an incredibly low number by today’s standards. Even Heath Shuler (sorry, Congressman Heath Shuler) never posted a mark that low when he wore the burgundy and gold. Yet Baugh’s 1937 campaign was not only good enough to guide the Redskins to their first NFL Championship, but it was also good enough to lead the league in quarterback rating. 71 years ago, the league average quarterback rating was just 34.4.
Quarterback ratings have been slowly rising since the game’s inception. We have reliable passing statistics dating back to 1936, and since then, the league average rating has risen from 28.9 to this season’s all-time high of 81.5. To try to get a sense of how Baugh’s 1937 season would translate into today’s passing environment, I normalized the statistic:
(QB rtg / Lg. avg. QB rtg) * 2008 Lg avg. QB rtg = Relative Quarterback Rating
(50.5 / 34.41) * 81.5 = 119.1
Baugh’s 1937 season would be the equivalent of a quarterback posting a 119.1 rating today. Thanks to the wonders of Microsoft Excel, it wasn’t hard to chart each year’s starting Redskins quarterback:
Year Redskin Rtg LgAvg Ratio adjusted for 2008
2008 Campbell, Jason 84.3 81.5 1.034 84.3
2007 Campbell, Jason 77.6 80.9 0.959 78.2
2006 Brunell, Mark 86.5 78.5 1.102 89.8
2005 Brunell, Mark 85.9 78.2 1.098 89.5
2004 Ramsey, Patrick 74.8 80.9 0.925 75.4
2003 Ramsey, Patrick 75.8 76.6 0.990 80.6
2002 Ramsey, Patrick 71.8 78.6 0.913 74.4
2001 Banks, Tony 71.3 76.6 0.931 75.9
2000 Johnson, Brad 75.7 76.2 0.993 81.0
1999 Johnson, Brad 90.0 75.1 1.198 97.7
1998 Green, Trent 81.8 76.2 1.073 87.5
1997 Frerotte, Gus 73.8 75.0 0.984 80.2
1996 Frerotte, Gus 79.3 75.0 1.057 86.2
1995 Frerotte, Gus 70.2 77.5 0.906 73.8
1994 Shuler, Heath 59.6 76.7 0.777 63.3
1993 Rypien, Mark 56.3 74.7 0.754 61.4
1992 Rypien, Mark 71.7 72.8 0.985 80.2
1991 Rypien, Mark 97.9 74.2 1.319 107.5
1990 Rypien, Mark 78.4 75.0 1.045 85.2
1989 Rypien, Mark 88.1 73.3 1.201 98.0
1988 Williams, Doug 77.4 70.6 1.096 89.3
1987 Schroeder, Jay 71.0 72.6 0.977 79.7
1986 Schroeder, Jay 72.9 71.5 1.019 83.1
1985 Theismann, Joe 59.6 70.7 0.842 68.7
1984 Theismann, Joe 86.6 73.2 1.183 96.4
1983 Theismann, Joe 97.0 73.1 1.326 108.1
1982 Theismann, Joe 91.3 70.6 1.293 105.4
1981 Theismann, Joe 77.3 70.5 1.096 89.4
1980 Theismann, Joe 75.2 71.3 1.054 86.0
1979 Theismann, Joe 83.9 67.8 1.237 100.9
1978 Theismann, Joe 61.6 62.1 0.991 80.8
1977 Kilmer, Billy 66.5 57.8 1.150 93.8
1976 Kilmer, Billy 70.3 63.6 1.105 90.1
1975 Kilmer, Billy 77.2 62.8 1.229 100.2
1974 Kilmer, Billy 83.5 61.4 1.359 110.8
1973 Kilmer, Billy 81.3 61.7 1.317 107.4
1972 Kilmer, Billy 84.8 63.5 1.335 108.8
1971 Kilmer, Billy 74.0 59.3 1.247 101.7
1970 Jurgensen, Sonny 91.5 62.5 1.464 119.3
1969 Jurgensen, Sonny 85.4 68.6 1.244 101.5
1968 Jurgensen, Sonny 81.7 65.6 1.245 101.5
1967 Jurgensen, Sonny 87.3 63.7 1.370 111.7
1966 Jurgensen, Sonny 84.5 64.2 1.316 107.3
1965 Jurgensen, Sonny 69.6 70.2 0.991 80.8
1964 Jurgensen, Sonny 85.4 68.0 1.255 102.4
1963 Snead, Norm 58.1 68.4 0.849 69.2
1962 Snead, Norm 74.7 69.4 1.076 87.7
1961 Snead, Norm 51.6 65.2 0.791 64.5
1960 Guglielmi, Ralph 55.7 61.0 0.913 74.4
1959 LeBaron, Eddie 54.0 64.1 0.842 68.7
1958 LeBaron, Eddie 83.3 62.8 1.326 108.1
1957 LeBaron, Eddie 86.1 59.9 1.437 117.1
1956 Dorow, Al 64.2 57.1 1.124 91.6
1955 LeBaron, Eddie 50.5 54.6 0.924 75.4
1954 Dorow, Al 54.2 59.0 0.918 74.9
1953 LeBaron, Eddie 28.3 50.9 0.555 45.3
1952 LeBaron, Eddie 65.7 51.8 1.268 103.4
1951 Baugh, Sammy 43.8 52.3 0.837 68.3
1950 Baugh, Sammy 68.1 49.8 1.367 111.4
1949 Baugh, Sammy 81.2 51.2 1.585 129.3
1948 Baugh, Sammy 78.3 60.0 1.305 106.2
1947 Baugh, Sammy 92.0 57.6 1.597 130.0
1946 Baugh, Sammy 54.2 47.6 1.138 92.7
1945 Baugh, Sammy 109.9 47.6 2.308 187.9
1944 Filchock, Frank 86.0 42.1 2.042 166.3
1943 Baugh, Sammy 78.0 48.6 1.604 130.6
1942 Baugh, Sammy 82.5 40.3 2.047 166.6
1941 Baugh, Sammy 52.2 39.6 1.318 107.3
1940 Baugh, Sammy 85.6 38.6 2.217 180.5
1939 Baugh, Sammy 52.3 39.7 1.317 107.2
1938 Baugh, Sammy 48.1 35.5 1.354 110.3
1937 Baugh, Sammy 50.5 34.5 1.463 119.1
1936 Battles, Cliff 17.1 28.9 0.591 48.2
1935 Shepherd, Bill 24.5 25.4 0.964 78.5
1934 Hokuf, Steve 23.7 18.8 1.260 102.6
1933 Musick, Jim 5.4 26.3 0.205 16.7
1932 Hughes, Honolulu 5.8 27.2 0.213 17.4
A couple of things immediately stand out. First, the Boston Braves had a quarterback named Honolulu Hughes. Second, notice that while the league average quarterback rating has risen over time, it hasn’t always been a flat slope. The first time the league average broke 60.0 was 1948, yet it took another 10 years for the average rating to break that mark for good. The same thing happened in 1965, when the league average surpassed 70.0 for the first time ever. Quarterback ratings slumped back into the 60s, and it wasn’t until 1980 that ratings were back into the 70s.
The maximum quarterback rating is 153.8, but for this exercise, there is no reason why we can’t exceed that limit. And good thing, because Baugh broke the barrier three times by himself. Forgotten Redskin Flingin’ Frank Filchock, Baugh’s understudy and teammate, also accomplished the feat.
The numbers illustrate how incredible Baugh’s 1945 season really was. It still stands as the highest single-season mark in franchise history, and it was done at a time when the league average was roughly half of what it is today. Plenty of other interesting oddities can be identified, including the sad fact that Heath Shuler’s 1994 season was actually a slight step up from Mark Rypien’s 1993. Also, look at how Jurgensen and Kilmer combined for ten consectuive years of 100+ relative quarterback rating from 1966-1975, yet the team produced just four playoff appearnces and zero championships. It just goes to show that the quarterback is only one guy.
If we sort by the normalized statistic, here would be the ten best seasons:
Year Redskin Rtg LgAvg Ratio adjusted for 2008
1945 Baugh, Sammy 109.9 47.6 2.308 187.9
1940 Baugh, Sammy 85.6 38.6 2.217 180.5
1942 Baugh, Sammy 82.5 40.3 2.047 166.6
1944 Filchock, Frank 86.0 42.1 2.042 166.3
1943 Baugh, Sammy 78.0 48.6 1.604 130.6
1947 Baugh, Sammy 92.0 57.6 1.597 130.0
1949 Baugh, Sammy 81.2 51.2 1.585 129.3
1970 Jurgensen, Sonny 91.5 62.5 1.464 119.3
1937 Baugh, Sammy 50.5 34.5 1.463 119.1
1957 LeBaron, Eddie 86.1 59.9 1.437 117.1
Sammy Baugh dominates, no real shock there. I was surprised to see Eddie LeBaron sneak into the top 10. This is interesting, but in terms of seeing how a guy like Baugh might stack up against guys like Jurgensen and Theismann, a more useful number would be a career mark. To find this, I multiplied each season’s 2008-adjusted quarterback rating by passes attempted, added those numbers up, and divided the sum by career passes attempted. I didn’t bother doing this for every quarterback in team history (sorry, Jeff Rutledge) but rather the most notable and most recent:
Redskin Rtg
Baugh, Sammy 126.3
Jurgensen, Sonny 104.7
Kilmer, Billy 101.9
Theismann, Joe 91.1
Johnson, Brad 90.8
Williams, Doug 90.3
Rypien, Mark 88.9
LeBaron, Eddie 83.7
Brunell, Mark 83.2
Schroeder, Jay 82.6
Campbell, Jason 81.0
Frerotte, Gus 78.1
Ramsey, Patrick 77.9
Snead, Norm 73.6
Shuler, Heath 61.8
I’ve always operated under the impression that Baugh, Jurgensen and Theismen were the three best quarterbacks in team history, in that order. I’ve always believed that Shuler was the worst, and everyone else falls somewhere in between. These rankings back up a lot of that. Baugh is in first by a wide margin, Jurgensen second, and Heath Shuler last.
But there are a few things that did surprise me. One was how ordinary Norm Snead was – I always thought that he was a better player (and to be fair, he did go on to have better years with the Eagles and Giants). Another is that Kilmer outpaces Theismann by a pretty substantial margin. I would guess that Kilmer gets underrated because he played with and after Jurgensen, inviting immediate comparisons. And of course, Theismann’s XVII Super Bowl ring and 1983 NFL MVP Trophy don’t hurt his cause.
So far, normalizing quarterback ratings appear to be a good way of comparing quarterbacks across eras. If I can compare Sammy Baugh to Sonny Jurgensen, why not to Joe Montana or Tom Brady?
I calculated the career numbers of all the NFL Hall of Famers, as well as the no-doubt future Hall of Famers (Manning, Brady, Favre). I also tossed in Ken Anderson, who was the league’s leader in quarterback rating four different seasons. The only other guys to accomplish that feat are Sammy Baugh, Roger Staubach, Steve Young and, depending on how you want to count AFL seasons, Len Dawson. (Of course, all those guys also won championships.):
Player Rtg
Clark, Dutch 137.6
Herber, Arnie 133.7
Luckman, Sid 129.0
Baugh, Sammy 126.2
Graham, Otto 125.5
Parker, Ace 113.1
Dawson, Len 110.5
Staubach, Roger 108.9
Van Brocklin, Norm 108.1
Young, Steve 105.2
Montana, Joe 103.4
Jurgensen, Sonny 102.7
Tarkenton, Fran 101.9
Griese, Bob 101.9
Anderson, Ken 101.3
Tittle, Y.A. 100.2
Starr, Bart 99.9
Waterfield, Bob 98.6
Unitas, Johnny 98.3
Manning, Peyton 98.3
Brady, Tom 96.0
Fouts, Dan 95.5
Marino, Dan 95.3
Kelly, Jim 92.9
Layne, Bobby 91.4
Favre, Brett 90.6
Bradshaw, Terry 89.4
Moon, Warren 88.8
Aikman, Troy 88.4
Namath, Joe 88.4
Elway, John 87.7
Blanda, George 86.7
There’s a lot that makes sense here, especially the bottom five of Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Joe Namath, John Elway and George Blanda. Ken Anderson stacks up nicely with the Hall of Famers. But the top is pretty worrisome. All of the pre-modern players finish in the top six. To say that I’m not ready to declare Dutch Clark as the greatest passer in football history would be an understatement.
This doesn’t really seem to make a ton of sense, so let’s take a look at the single-season league leaders:
Year League Leader Rtg LgAvg Ratio adjusted for 2008
1934 Herber, Arnie 72.6 18.8 3.861 314.3
1935 Danowski, Ed 69.7 25.4 2.744 223.4
1945 Baugh, Sammy 109.9 47.6 2.308 187.9
1940 Baugh, Sammy 85.6 38.6 2.218 180.5
1943 Luckman, Sid 107.5 48.6 2.211 180.1
1942 Isbell, Cecil 87.0 40.3 2.158 175.7
1941 Isbell, Cecil 81.4 39.6 2.055 167.3
1944 Filchock, Frank 86.0 42.1 2.042 166.3
1936 Herber, Arnie 58.9 28.9 2.038 165.9
1933 Newman, Harry 51.7 26.3 1.965 160.0
1953 Graham, Otto 99.7 50.9 1.958 159.4
1932 Herber, Arnie 51.5 27.2 1.893 154.1
1960 Plum, Milt 110.4 61.0 1.809 147.3
1962* Dawson, Len 98.3 55.2 1.780 145.0
1971 Staubach, Roger 104.8 59.3 1.767 143.9
1955 Graham, Otto 94.0 54.6 1.721 140.1
1950 Van Brocklin, Norm 85.1 49.8 1.708 139.1
1947** Graham, Otto 109.2 64.5 1.693 137.8
1966* Dawson, Len 101.7 60.6 1.678 136.6
1949** Graham, Otto 97.5 58.4 1.669 135.9
1968* Dawson, Len 98.6 59.5 1.657 134.9
1949 Thompson, Tommy 84.4 51.2 1.648 134.2
1948 Thompson, Tommy 98.4 60.0 1.640 133.5
1966 Starr, Bart 105.0 64.2 1.635 133.1
1976 Stabler, Ken 103.4 63.6 1.625 132.3
1961* Blanda, George 91.3 56.3 1.621 132.0
1948** Albert, Frankie 102.9 64.2 1.602 130.5
1959 Conerly, Charlie 102.7 64.1 1.602 130.4
1947 Baugh, Sammy 92.0 57.6 1.597 130.0
1951 Waterfield, Bob 81.8 52.3 1.564 127.3
1974 Anderson, Ken 95.7 61.4 1.558 126.9
1989 Montana, Joe 112.4 73.3 1.533 124.8
1973 Staubach, Roger 94.6 61.7 1.533 124.8
1963 Tittle, Y.A. 104.8 68.4 1.532 124.7
1977 Griese, Bob 87.8 57.8 1.519 123.6
1938 Parker, Ace* 53.5 35.5 1.507 122.7
1964* Dawson, Len 89.9 59.7 1.505 122.6
1970 Brodie, John 93.8 62.5 1.500 122.2
2004 Manning, Peyton 121.1 80.9 1.496 121.9
1975 Anderson, Ken 93.9 62.8 1.495 121.7
1946 Luckman, Sid 71.0 47.6 1.491 121.4
1984 Marino, Dan 108.9 73.2 1.487 121.1
1994 Young, Steve 112.8 76.7 1.470 119.7
1992 Young, Steve 107.0 72.8 1.469 119.6
1957 Unitas, Johnny 88.0 59.9 1.469 119.6
1937 Baugh, Sammy 50.5 34.5 1.463 119.1
1965* Dawson, Len 81.3 55.6 1.462 119.0
1956 Brown, Ed 83.1 57.1 1.455 118.5
1999 Warner, Kurt 109.2 75.1 1.454 118.4
2007 Brady, Tom 117.2 80.9 1.448 117.9
1939 Hall, Parker 57.5 39.7 1.448 117.9
1961 Wade, Billy 93.7 65.2 1.437 117.0
1969* Cook, Greg 88.3 61.5 1.435 116.9
1958 Unitas, Johnny 90.0 62.8 1.433 116.7
1967* Dawson, Len 83.7 58.5 1.430 116.5
1964 Star, Bartt 97.1 68.0 1.427 116.2
1968 Morrall, Earl 93.2 65.6 1.420 115.6
1987 Montana, Joe 102.1 72.6 1.406 114.5
1963* Rote, Tobin 86.7 62.1 1.396 113.6
1997 Young, Steve 104.7 75.0 1.396 113.6
1981 Anderson, Ken 98.4 70.5 1.395 113.6
1998 Cunningham, Randall 106.0 76.2 1.391 113.2
1965 Unitas, Johnny 97.4 70.2 1.387 112.9
1952 Van Brocklin, Norm 71.5 51.8 1.380 112.4
1988 Esiason, Boomer 97.4 70.6 1.379 112.3
1991 Young, Steve 101.8 74.2 1.371 111.7
1967 Jurgensen, Sonny 87.3 63.7 1.370 111.6
1978 Staubach, Roger 84.9 62.1 1.367 111.3
1954 Burk, Adrian 80.4 59.0 1.362 110.9
1979 Staubach, Roger 92.3 67.8 1.361 110.8
1985 O'Brien, Ken 96.2 70.7 1.360 110.8
1993 Young, Steve 101.5 74.7 1.358 110.6
2000 Griese, Brian 102.9 76.2 1.350 109.9
1982 Anderson, Ken 95.3 70.6 1.349 109.9
1990 Kelly, Jim 101.2 75.0 1.349 109.8
1972 Kilmer, Billy 84.8 63.5 1.335 108.7
1983 Bartkowski, Steve 97.6 73.1 1.335 108.7
2005 Manning, Peyton 104.1 78.2 1.331 108.4
2002 Pennington, Chad 104.2 78.6 1.325 107.9
2001 Warner, Kurt 101.4 76.6 1.323 107.8
2003 McNair, Steve 100.4 76.6 1.310 106.7
1962 Starr, Bart 90.7 69.4 1.306 106.4
1995 Harbaugh, Jim 100.7 77.5 1.299 105.8
2008 Rivers, Phillip 105.5 81.4 1.296 105.5
1996 Young, Steve 97.2 75.0 1.296 105.5
1986 Kramer, Tommy 92.6 71.5 1.295 105.4
2006 Manning, Peyton 101.0 78.5 1.286 104.7
1980 Sipe, Brian 91.4 71.3 1.281 104.3
1969 Tarkenton, Fran 87.2 68.6 1.271 103.5
1946** Albert, Frankie 69.8 55.4 1.259 102.6
1960* Tom Flores 71.8 59.6 1.204 98.1
* American Football League season
** All-American Football Conference season
Now this completely fails the smell test. The idea that the top ten seasons in NFL history all occurred before 1950 doesn’t make any sense. The notion that Peyton Manning’s historic 2004 season would only rank 40th in NFL history is absurd. Obviously, this system favors the older players. The early greats like Baugh and Luckman were further ahead of the curve than today’s best like Manning and Brady, but that doesn’t neccesarily mean they were better. It’s a good reminder that statistics can mislead, especially in a sport as unique and ever-changing as football.
But there was no way I was going come up completely empty after all this work, so I tried a different, if less scientific, exercise. I identified the seasons in which the league-leading quarterback finished with a quarterback rating at least ten points higher than his closest competitor, not just in that same season, but also the seasons before and after. For example, Tom Brady’s 2007 (117.2) was better than any other quarterback’s 2006, 2007 and 2008:
Year Player Rtg Year Next Closest Rtg Diff Length
2007 Brady, Tom 117.2 2007 Roethlisberger, Ben 104.1 13.1 3 years
2004 Manning, Peyton 121.1 2004 Culpepper, Daunte 110.9 10.2 3 years
1994 Young, Steve* 112.8 1993 Harbaugh, Jim 100.7 12.1 3 years
1989 Montana, Joe* 112.4 1990 Kelly, Jim 101.2 11.2 5 years
1971 Staubach, Roger* 104.8 1970 Brodie, John 93.8 11.0 3 years
1953 Graham, Otto 99.7 1953 Van Brocklin, Norm 84.1 15.6 2 years
1945 Baugh, Sammy* 109.9 1944 Filchock, Frank 86.0 23.9 2 years
1943 Luckman, Sid* 107.5 1942 Isbell, Cecil 87.0 20.5 2 years
*won NFL Championship
By “length”, I mean the number of years it took for another quarterback to post a mark within ten points of the mark. For example, no quarterback got within Joe Montana’s 1989 mark of 112.4 until Steve young posted a 112.8 five years later in 1994.
It’s a short list. The feat has only been accomplished eight times in NFL history, and never twice by the same man. Baugh had the highest “margin of victory”, but Joe Montana’s mark lasted the longest. I think if you were going to make a list of the five best single seasons, those five championship seasons would be a pretty good place to start.
Congrats on the mention in the official redskins blog. http://blog.redskins.com/2009/01/08/some-interesting-quarterback-numbers/#continued