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The-Hogs.net • View topic - 538.com and the Presidential Race

538.com and the Presidential Race

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538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:07 am

Here is the latest from 538.com on the presidential election.

Their Polls-plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8 - currently gives Clinton an 81.6% chance of winning the election.

The states currently blue that Trump must flip in order from easiest-to-flip to hardest-to-flip along with Clinton's current chance of winning each are:

Ohio 54.8%
North Carolina 59.8%
Florida 65.4%
Nevada 68.4%
Colorado 82%

The current most frequent electoral outcome is Clinton 357, Trump 179.

The race is far from over but this is how 538 sees it right now.

They nailed the last election in every state thereby nailing the electoral count exactly.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... cast/#plus


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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:17 am

Update:

Here is the latest from 538.com on the presidential election.

Their Polls-plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8 - currently gives Clinton an 84.7 % (up from 81.6% a week ago) chance of winning the election.

The states currently blue that Trump must flip in order from easiest-to-flip to hardest-to-flip along with Clinton's current chance of winning each are:

Ohio 58.4% (up from 54.8% a week ago)
North Carolina 63.7% (up from 59.8% a week ago)
Florida 71.2% (up from 65.4% a week ago)
Nevada 72% (up from 68.4% a week ago)
Colorado 87.6% (up from 82% a week ago)

The current most frequent electoral outcome is Clinton 347, Trump 191. This is "better" than last week for Trump as Arizona is a dead heat and is oscillating between them. It is better in that Trump gets more electors. It is worse in that it is a more likely loss for him than it was a week ago.

The race is far from over but this is how 538 sees it right now.


Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:49 am

Trump will not be the next President - NO WAY

The electoral college prefers the slimy liar - and they never lose
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Deadskins » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:14 am

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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:05 am



Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
We want heap more!
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:21 pm



Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
We want heap more!
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:05 pm

the lying scumbag will most likely end up winning the election despite all the terrible things that she's done ...

it's not that big of a deal that the Democratic party wins control of the Senate. only politicians care about S.C. Justices - the Supreme Court Justices do a pretty good job for the most part and they are not as biased or politically biased and stupid as most politicians are

It would be a huge loss if the Republicans lost the House as well - that would serve them right for not doing something about Trump a lot sooner
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby TexasCowboy » Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:54 pm

According to their electoral #'s Clinton has 316.7 while Trump has 220.2 either way Hillary wins by a
hefty margin even if she doesn't take Ohio which it appears she won't.
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:08 pm

Update:

The race has tightened considerably.

Here is the latest from 538.com on the presidential election.

Their Polls-plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8 - currently gives Clinton a 65.6% (down from 84.7% 2 weeks ago) chance of winning the election.

Trump has flipped Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida back to red.

The states currently blue that Trump must flip in order from easiest-to-flip to hardest-to-flip along with Clinton's current chance of winning each are:

Nevada 50.9%
New Hampshire 63.8%

The current most frequent electoral outcome is Clinton 278, Trump 260.

If Nevada flips we are talking Clinton 272, Trump 266.

It could come down to New Hampshire.


Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
We want heap more!
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:26 am

It's still a lot more likely that the lying scumbag wins ...

the only good thing to come out of all the recent stuff from the FBI is that it will hurt her chances of winning the house and senate

I do not want Trump to be President but I do want her to have a miserable time trying to get things done

hopefully she gets in and then gets indicted
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Deadskins » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:26 am

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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:19 pm

The polling for NV, NC, and FL is oscillating around the 50% mark. Today NV, NC, and FL are light blue again.

If Clinton can win one of these she is much safer. Trump would likely need PA which is a long shot.

BTW - The most likely Senate outcome is 51-49 Dems. The House remains firmly in Republican control.


Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
We want heap more!
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Countertrey » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:03 pm

"That's a clown question, bro"
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:53 pm

Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby TexasCowboy » Sat Nov 05, 2016 10:41 am

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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Countertrey » Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:12 pm

"That's a clown question, bro"
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby TexasCowboy » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:46 am

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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Countertrey » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:38 pm

"That's a clown question, bro"
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby TexasCowboy » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:21 pm

I'M AM LUCIFER THE DEVIL IN THE FLESH
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:46 am

Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby gushogs » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:09 pm

Hi there, on this subject I'm not allowed to express my opinion, since I'm from Panama and not a US citizen. Obviously we do care about politics in the US, since they are not only the top economy in the world, but have been involved with us since the birth of our nation.
I have tried to mix up the sources of the info I gather from the election and the candidates. I checked the entire GOP and Dem primaries, and from the other side of the fence, I can only say I'm sad for Americans to have choose between a egomaniac and a nontrustworthy person.
Polititicians in the entire world have become corrupt to the core and we the citizens are fed up.
Good luck tomorrow!
Augusto J.
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby DarthMonk » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:11 am

Final Prediction:

Clinton carries NV, FL, NC, and NH to win the Electoral College 323 - 215.

Latino vote tips the scales.


Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
We want heap more!
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:27 pm

my prediction for this election has not changed since Trump was nominated

there is no way that Trump can win an election with an increased hispanic vote count - no way

today's the day and the final result will be very obvious, very early - thank God
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock
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Posts: 18385
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Deadskins » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:29 am

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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:51 am

=D> Praise the Lord
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock
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Posts: 18385
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2004 10:23 pm
Location: New England

Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby Burgundy&GoldForever » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:51 am

“He was at that time the smartest player in the league. We did everything we could to try to eliminate him from the play. We knew if we didn’t neutralize him, then we had less of a chance of winning.” - John Hannah on Chris Hanburger
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Re: 538.com and the Presidential Race

Postby SkinsJock » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:24 pm

Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock
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